2008 US election and Asia Pacific

Upcoming presidential election in November 2008 will be a critical moment for the US and the world. All eyes put on this election regardless of nationalities. This is a great opportunity for me to experience the atmosphere of this historical event. My APLP generation, G 8, is so uniquely special. It starts in August and 2008 which means lucky number in Chinese tradition. G8/08/2008, I believe, will create prominent leaders (at least one of them) in the future.

Based on the debates and discussions among experts and analysts here in the United States and especially after listening live to presidential and vice-presidential debates, I argue that there is nothing much change in terms of American foreign policy towards Asia Pacific region between the two political parties. Domestic issues such as financial crisis, tax, health care, education, and energy dominate presidential debates while other international issues such as war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iranian nuclear ambition, and rising Russia rank number two. The next president will face with huge challenge and criticism from the public in their one early time of the administration. Financial crisis is going on and domestic issues are getting worse. No one has resolution for this at least for the short term.

Although Asia policy was not brought in at the debate platform, it is widely discussed among American politicians and experts. Their narratives demonstrated US’s strong interest in Asia Pacific region but accepted the relative decline of US influence in the region because of the rise of East Asian countries especially China. There are some differences between Barack Obama and John McCain in terms of approaching the region. The old school thinker McCain is strongly influenced by Cold War international politics such as concepts of balance of power and containment. On the other hand, a young reformer Obama believes more in partnership and diplomacy.

East Asian countries largely still consider US as the main actor/driver in the region. At every forums and talks, East Asian leaders express their interests in strengthening relationship with the US. Vietnam and Cambodia have moved closer to US to balance with China and mainly for national interests. The positive attitude of the East Asian countries towards the US means that they believe in US’s international role. But given domestic issues and misguided foreign policy in the Bush administration reduced US attention in Asia Pacific. The new administration hopefully will return back to Asia Pacific region which stronger interactions and relationship. US should play more active role in APEC, East Asia Submit, Asian Regional Forum, and bilateral partnership with individual East Asian country. US should view the rise of China as positive in terms of partnership and strategic balancer not competitor as for now Southeast Asian countries seek to invite more US influence in the region to balance with China. US should take this opportunity to come back to Southeast Asia. It doesn’t mean that East Asia will be divided but rather it would be more integrated with the partnership with both China and US. US-China partnership is very important for Asia Pacific Security and Prosperity.